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☆ How Trump’s tariff plans could kill jobs and worsen inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Trump has floated a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports, a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 100% tariff on foreign cars – including from Mexico. Trump’s proposals, if enacted, could easily set off a new trade war with China and potentially other nations, too. Some economists are warning Trump’s trade agenda and the ensuing retaliation from trading partners would hurt the US economy by worsening inflation, killing jobs, depressing growth and spooking investors. It’s hard to say exactly because there is a lot of uncertainty over how much of Trump’s proposed agenda would actually be enacted. That’s because tariffs tax imports when they come ashore, adding costs for US distributors, retailers and, ultimately consumers.

Persons: he’s, Donald Trump, Trump, ” Alex Durante, Trump’s, ”, Mark Zandi, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, ” Goldman, Janet Yellen, Joe Biden’s, Karoline Leavitt, ” “, ” Leavitt, “, Biden, “ Donald Trump, ” Biden, James Singer, Biden’s, That’s, Durante, Joe Brusuelas, don’t, ” Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Liz, Maury Obstfeld, Obstfeld, Obama, ” Durante Organizations: New, New York CNN —, Tax Foundation, CNN, Trump, China, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, RSM, Target, Walmart, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Monetary Fund, US International Trade Commission, “, Obama Locations: New York, China, Mexico, Beijing, United States

☆ Oil price surge is the No. 1 threat to the US economy, Moody’s economist warns
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

But there is a growing threat to that sunny economic backdrop: surging oil prices. Global oil prices are flirting with $92 a barrel amid worries about a wider war in the Middle East. US oil prices surged above $87 a barrel late last week for the first time since late October, leaving them up about 21% this year. First, drone attacks on oil refineries deep inside Russia helped lift oil prices last month. Beyond the Middle East tensions, oil and gas prices have been boosted by OPEC and its allies, which continue to restrain supply.

Persons: “, ”, Mark Zandi, Moody’s, Donald Trump, Trump, ” Zandi, hasn’t, Andy Lipow, Brent, ” Helima Croft, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Vincent Reinhart, Mellon, ” Reinhart, he’s, Patrick De Haan, ” De Haan Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Wall, CNN, “, Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Lipow Oil Associates, CIA, RBC Capital Markets, RSM, AAA, OPEC, Lipow Locations: New York, Iran, Russia, Syria, Israel, Quds, “

☆ This week will make it clearer if the Fed will cut interest rates in March
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-28 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

Washington, DC CNN —A slew of economic news this week will make it much clearer if the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. The Labor Department is due to release four crucial assessments of America’s job market, gauging labor demand, wage growth, productivity and hiring. Wages and the Fed on Wednesday: The day after, the Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter, a comprehensive measure of employers’ labor costs. The US Labor Department releases December data on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter.

Persons: that’s, ”, Christian Scherrmann, Jerome Powell, ” Michael Feroli, “, ” Feroli, Powell, Alicia Wallace, Joe Brusuelas, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, DWS, Labor, Survey, Fed, Employers, PCE, Federal, Commerce Department, RSM, Whirlpool, Microsoft, UBS, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, Cleveland Cliffs, Mondelez International, JetBlue Airways, Global, US Labor Department, Board, National Bureau of Statistics, Novo Nordisk, Mastercard, Novartis, Boeing, ADP, Nasdaq, Nomura Holdings, Apple, Shell, Honeywell, Deutsche Bank, Clorox, Quest Diagnostics, United States Steel, Bank of England, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Marathon, Cleveland, Chevron

☆ CPI: America’s final inflation report for 2023 just came in
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Economists were expecting the annual overall inflation rate to tick higher, to 3.2% from the 3.1% headline reading the month before, according to FactSet consensus estimates. Despite the acceleration, the annual rate of consumer-level inflation is down considerably from December 2022’s rate of 6.5%; additionally, a closely watched measure of underlying inflation slowed further. In December, core goods prices were flat, an apparent stalling out after six months of declines. Rising shelter costs have kept core services elevated. The central bank has a target inflation rate of 2%, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which has its latest reading due out later this month.

Persons: “, ” Wendy Edelberg, ” “, ’, Brian Coulton, Fitch, ” Scott Anderson, Jerome Powell, Joe Brusuelas, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, BLS, The Hamilton Project, Brookings, CNN, Federal, BMO, CPI, PCE, RSM Locations: New York, November’s

☆ The Fed is losing control
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Financial markets currently see a nearly 99% chance the Fed will continue to pause rate increases in November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That means the Fed may not need to continue aggressively raising rates to bring spending — and inflation — down. A spokesperson from the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union told CNN that they support the organizers planning a walkout and protests. In a statement to CNN, Walgreens said about 20 stores out of about 9,000 had “disruptions over three days,” Oct. 9-11. Walgreens walkout organizers told CNN that their tally is much higher, with about 600 employees participating.

Persons: New York CNN —, Jerome Powell, Joe Brusuelas, That’s, Powell, ”, ” Johns, Laurence Ball, Shane Jerominski, Tim Wentworth, ” Kim Kardashian, Skims, Kim Kardashian, undershirts Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal, Fed, Economic, of New, RSM, Financial, Treasury, Reserve, ” Johns Hopkins, “, Walgreens, Workers, CNN, United Food, Commercial Workers International Union, SEIU, United Healthcare Workers West, Organizers Locations: New York, of New York, Friday’s

Consumers fell prey to inflation that remains high, especially for life’s necessities like food and gasoline, according to the latest monthly survey from the University of Michigan. The consumer sentiment survey fell by 7% overall to 63 from 68.1 in September, while the current conditions reading dropped to 66.7 from 71.4 and the future expectations was at 60.7, down from 66 a month ago. Notably, expectations for the annual rate of inflation a year from now rose to 3.8% from 3.2% in September. “Assessments of personal finances declined about 15%, primarily on a substantial increase in concerns over inflation, and one-year expected business conditions plunged about 19%,” said Joanne Hsu, survey director. “Owners remain pessimistic about future business conditions, which has contributed to the low optimism they have regarding the economy,” said Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB chief economist.

Persons: ”, Joanne Hsu, Sam Bullard, Joe Brusuelas, Tuan Nguyen, NFIB, Bill Dunkelberg, JP Morgan Chase, Jamie Dimon Organizations: University of Michigan, Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Wells Locations: U.S, Washington

☆ Gas prices could fall to $3.25 by Halloween as oil plunges
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —After spiking to alarming levels just last week, oil prices are suddenly in free-fall mode. US oil prices plunged by 5.6% to $84.22 a barrel on Wednesday, marking the biggest one-day decline in a year. Now, gas prices are already starting to retreat and experts predict sharper drops to come. That’s 11 cents below the 2023 peak set last month when gas prices experienced an unusual post-Labor Day jump. Boom to bustSo why did oil prices go from spiking to plunging?

Persons: Andy Lipow, Tom Kloza, Kloza, ” Kloza, “, Joe Brusuelas, ”, Matt Smith, ” Smith, There’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, AAA, Labor, Lipow Oil Associates, CNN, Oil Price Information Service, “, Federal Reserve, RSM, Fed, Saudi, Americas Locations: New York, Saudi Arabia, Kpler, Ukraine

☆ Analysis: A messy government shutdown is the last thing the economy needs
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Against this precarious backdrop, Washington is on the verge of a messy shutdown of the federal government. A shutdown probably won’t wreck the economy, especially if it’s short. And if it a shutdown lasts long enough, it could, along with these other headwinds, do some real damage. The US Travel Association estimates the domestic travel economy would lose as much as $140 million a day from a government shutdown. “Uncertainty regarding federal operations will likely persist for the next few months.”Given all the other obstacles facing the economy, chaos in Washington is the last thing the economy needs.

Persons: New York CNN —, ”, Greg Valliere, Joe Brusuelas, Goldman Sachs, —, Uncle Sam, Mark Zandi, don’t, ” Zandi, AGF’s, “, ” Moody’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, UAW, Big Three, Federal, Federal Reserve, AGF Investments, RSM, American Federation of Government Employees, TSA, US Travel Association, Companies, Moody’s, AAA, Goldman Locations: New York, Washington, United States

☆ Gas is rapidly approaching $6 in one state
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

In California, gas prices are rapidly approaching $6 a gallon. Nationally, gas prices remain well below the record of $5.02 set last June. Still, US gas prices climbed this week to $3.88 a gallon, the highest level of the entire year, according to AAA. Boosted by those two nations’ aggressive supply cuts, US oil prices climbed to as high as $93.74 a barrel on Tuesday. And this recent rise in gas prices is causing headaches for some in Washington.

Persons: it’s, That’s, Pain, Joe Biden’s, Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Nicholas Colas, Colas, “, ”, Joe Brusuelas, Andy Lipow, Lipow, Russia don’t, Brent, Goldman Sachs, Vincent Reinhart, RSM’s, Reinhart, ’, Morgan Stanley, Kristina Hooper Organizations: New York CNN, —, AAA, Brent, Federal, DataTrek Research, RSM, Lipow Oil Associates, Rockies, Citigroup, Fed, Mellon Locations: United States, West Coast, In California, Los Angeles, Long Beach, California, Washington and Nevada, Saudi Arabia, Russia, It’s, Washington, OPEC

☆ UAW strike could brake hard-driving US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Dan Burns | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"UAW on strike" signs lean against a pile of wood on the picket line outside the General Motors Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly in Hamtramck, Michigan, U.S. October 25, 2019. RSM estimates the U.S. economy would suffer a modest 0.2% drag to annualized growth of gross domestic product this quarter should the strike action last for a month, Brusuelas said. Other economists offered comparable estimates of the potential drag from a prolonged strike by the Big Three's full union membership. A full-blown strike "could push U.S. payroll growth temporarily negative," Michael Pearce, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote on Wednesday. Pearce also estimated a full strike lasting a month could cut U.S. auto output by nearly a third, much as it did during the 1998 strike.

Persons: Rebecca Cook, Detroit's, Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Michael Pearce, Pearce, Dan Burns, Deepa Babington, Diane Craft Organizations: UAW, General Motors Detroit, Hamtramck, REUTERS, General Motors, Ford, United Auto Workers, RSM, Big, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Labor, payrolls, Thomson Locations: Hamtramck , Michigan, U.S

Biden said that when negotiations began, he encouraged leaders of the two sides to stay at the bargaining table as long as possible. The head of the UAW said the union's negotiators “are hard at work at the bargaining table.”The UAW strike is just one of many labor disruptions. Still, a wider strike by the UAW could cause parts of the U.S. economy to shudder. The chain reaction across parts suppliers to the stores and restaurants that auto workers patronize could hurt local economies in Michigan, Wisconsin and other states that could be pivotal in next year’s election. Former President Donald Trump, the early Republican front-runner, said that union workers jobs are at risk because of Biden’s push to use of government incentives to build more EVs.

Persons: Joe Biden, autoworkers, ”, ” Biden, Stellantis, Biden, Julie Su, Gene Sperling, Shawn Fain, “, ’, Suzanne Clark, Joshua Bolten, ” Fain, Joe Brusuelas, Donald Trump, Trump, Jill Colvin Organizations: WASHINGTON, Big, White, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford, UAW, GM, Fiat Chrysler, Workers, Labor Department, Democratic, Business, U.S . Chamber of Commerce, RSM, Oxford Economics, Republican, NBC News Locations: Detroit, California , Oregon, Washington, U.S, Michigan , Wisconsin, China, United States, America

☆ Auto strike could be speed bump for hard-driving US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Dan Burns | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"While that amount is large in nominal dollar terms, it would not be large enough to tip the economy into recession. In the end, the impact of a such a strike would be modest compared to previous generations," Brusuelas said. Other economists offered comparable estimates of the potential drag from a prolonged strike by the Big Three's full union membership. A full-blown strike "could push U.S. payroll growth temporarily negative," Michael Pearce, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote on Wednesday. Pearce also estimated a full strike lasting a month could cut U.S. auto output by nearly a third, much as it did during the 1998 strike.

Persons: Rebecca Cook, Detroit's, Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Michael Pearce, Pearce, Dan Burns, Deepa Babington Organizations: UAW, General Motors Detroit, Hamtramck, REUTERS, General Motors, Ford, United Auto Workers, RSM, Big, Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Labor, payrolls, Thomson Locations: Hamtramck , Michigan, U.S

☆ Don’t be fooled by rising consumer price data, take a peek behind the numbers
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

CNN —US consumer prices rose 3.2% for the 12 months ending in July, according to the latest Consumer Price Index, which landed Thursday. “Don’t be fooled by the uptick in [year-over-year] inflation,” noted Julia Pollak, chief economist for ZipRecruiter. Gimme (cheaper) shelter: Shelter (i.e. “Our baseline forecast suggests that year-over-year shelter inflation will continue to slow through late 2024 and may even turn negative by mid-2024,” the researchers wrote. Uncooked beef steak prices rose 2.3% and uncooked ground beef rose 1.5%.

Persons: It’s, Don’t, ”, Julia Pollak, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, —, Anna Bahney, Danielle Wiener, Bronner, That’s, Douglas Elliman, Miller Samuel, Spencer Platt, Jonathan Miller, “, Read, Biden, Michelle Toh Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, ZipRecruiter, RSM US, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, San Francisco, Big Apple, Getty Locations: Manhattan, New York, New York City, China, Silicon

☆ CPI: Consumer prices rose by 3.2% annually in July, picking up for the first time in 13 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Minneapolis CNN —For the first time in more than 12 months, the pace of consumer price hikes accelerated on an annual basis. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% for the year through July, up from June’s 3% annual increase, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% from June and was up 4.7% from the year-ago period. July is the the fourth consecutive month that annual core CPI has eased, and the 4.7% rate landed 0.1 percentage points below consensus expectations. Shelter prices rose 0.4% month on month and were up 7.7% for the year ending in July.

Persons: “ Don’t, ”, Julia Pollak, Joe Biden, ” Biden, “ We’ve, Kurt Rankin, Dow, “, Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Tamara Charm, Brandon Bell, Danielle DiMartino Booth, DiMartino Booth, — CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, CPI, Federal Reserve, PNC, Nasdaq, RSM US, CNN, San, Services, “, McKinsey, Quill Intelligence, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Locations: Minneapolis, June’s, San Francisco, Austin , Texas

☆ Fed approves hike that takes interest rates to highest level in more than 22 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

WASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved a much-anticipated interest rate hike that takes benchmark borrowing costs to their highest level in more than 22 years. The midpoint of that target range would be the highest level for the benchmark rate since early 2001. Still, he seemed to leave room to potentially hold rates steady at the Fed's next meeting in September. All of those figures, while well below the worst levels of the current cycle, are running above the Fed's 2% target. Along with the rate hike, the committee indicated it will continue to cut the bond holdings on its balance sheet, which peaked at $9 trillion before the Fed began its quantitative tightening efforts.

Persons: WASHINGTON, Jerome Powell, Powell, Joe Brusuelas Organizations: Federal Reserve, Committee, Fed, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Treasury, RSM, University of Michigan, CPI, Cleveland Fed's, Atlanta Fed

☆ Gasoline prices are spiking. That’s a problem for Powell and the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The two-day jump in gasoline prices — the biggest in a year — is combining with a rally in wheat and other agricultural commodities. All told, gas prices have spiked 9 cents in 48 hours. Lower gas prices have been central to progress on slowing price increases. The IMF warned on Tuesday that grain prices could rise by 10% to 15% because of the collapse of the grain deal. Yawger noted that soybean futures have also climbed sharply amid concerns about high heat hurting crops in the United States.

Persons: haven’t, “, ”, Patrick De Haan, unnerve, Jerome Powell, Francisco Blanch, Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Robert Yawger, Yawger, De Haan Organizations: New York CNN, Federal Reserve, AAA, unnerve ’, Bank of America, RSM, IMF, Mizuho Securities, Hurricanes, Nature, ExxonMobil, CNN Locations: Russia, Ukraine, United States, Baton Rouge

☆ The US labor market cooled off in June, adding just 209,000 jobs
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Minneapolis CNN —The US job market cooled back down in June, adding just 209,000 jobs, and fueling optimism that the economy is on course to nail that elusive soft landing of lowering inflation without triggering a recession. That being said, last month’s job growth still outpaces the pre-pandemic average. “The job growth is slowing, but I don’t actually think that’s necessarily a bad thing,” Rucha Vankudre, senior economist for labor market analytics company Lightcast, told CNN. “In the tug of war between the labor market and the economy, there is still a push and pull, yet the labor market remains strong,” Becky Frankiewicz, president and chief commercial officer of ManpowerGroup, said in commentary issued Friday. In June, sectors such as government, as well as health care and social assistance, saw the biggest job gains: 60,000 and 65,200, respectively.

Persons: Rucha Vankudre, We’re, Becky Frankiewicz, ManpowerGroup, “, Lightcast’s Vankudre, ” “, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, “ We’re, ” Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNN, “, Federal Reserve, Service, BLS, RSM, Fed Locations: Minneapolis

☆ Premarket stocks: Does the Fed have the labor market all wrong?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —The labor market just won’t quit, but this could be another case of “good news is bad news” for the Federal Reserve. But while job growth is a sign of a healthy economy, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that he wants to see more slack in the labor market in order to bring inflation down. But in April, the unemployment rate reached 3.4%, with the 12-month average of unemployment reaching a record low of 3.6%. Plus, the mass retirement of baby boomers, slowing of immigration rates and long-term health impacts of Covid have also permanently altered the labor market. Why it matters: These changes have led many economists to say that the labor market doesn’t matter anymore, said Kathryn Rooney Vera, chief market strategist at StoneX.

Persons: won’t, Jerome Powell, ”, Joe Brusuelas, Kathryn Rooney Vera, boomer, we’ve, “, Vera, Sam Stovall, Bryan Mena, Stovall, Jordan Valinsky Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Gross, RSM, Labor, Fed Fed, CFRA Research, Federal, CNN, Handil Holdings Locations: New York, “

☆ The Fed is secretly stress testing the US economy against nightmare scenarios
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

When asked how the Fed plans for the worst case scenarios on the geopolitical front, he first responded in Fedspeak. At every Fed policy meeting, he said, “our staff works up six or seven or eight alternative simulations,” he said. The market impact: The policy scenarios considered by the Fed are quite sensitive. That’s likely why when Powell was asked about the scenarios the Fed had most recently considered, he stayed mum. They’re posting elaborate TikToks where they pretend that the McDonald’s Grimace shake has killed them, of course.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell didn’t, ”, they’re, Joe Brusuelas, Stacey Tevlin, Ben Bernanke, Philippa Dunne, “, Danielle DiMartino Booth, That’s, Powell, “ I’m, Joe Biden, Biden, “ Bidenomics, Elisabeth Buchwald, Bryan Mena, Read, McDonald’s, Scottie Andrew, Grimace’s, Ronald McDonald, Andrews, it’s, Matthew Prince, “ It’s Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal, European Central Bank, Federal, RSM, “, Fed, Bloomberg, TLR, QI Research, Federal Reserve, Chapman University, CNN Locations: New York, Portugal, Fedspeak, China, Chicago, America, California, ”

☆ Inflation hurts. But White House economists find that it’s even worse in every other G7 nation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN Business —The United States is recovering faster than its peers from the historic bout of inflation squeezing families and souring the mood of the nation, according to a new analysis from White House economists. To address that, the White House economists built an apples-to-apples inflation metric that makes certain adjustments to how shelter costs factor into overall inflation. But we are very heartened and happy to see the trend going where it is,” a CEA official told CNN in a phone interview. And here’s the thing about inflation: It is undeniably down in the United States.”Two independent economists that CNN shared the CEA report with support the logic powering the analysis. That is absolutely a painful thing,” the CEA official said.

Persons: Joe Biden’s, “, “ I’m, Mark Zandi, Republican John McCain, Zandi, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, Joe Biden, Ronald Reagan, Biden, Brian Moynihan, CNN’s Poppy Harlow, George W, Bush, Piper Sandler, Trump, ” Piper Sandler Organizations: New York CNN Business —, White House, of Economic Advisers, CNN, CEA, White, Republican, RSM, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Federal, Gallup Locations: United States, Ukraine, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, America, Europe, Wall, Middle America

☆ The Fed just paused on raising interest rates. Here's what it means for jobs, prices, and your bank account this summer.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Bartie Scott | Andy Kiersz | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it would not raise interest rates this month. It's important to note that a one-time pause doesn't mean interest rates won't rise any more at future meetings, but the committee signaled that an end is in sight. The decision included a projection of two more 25 basis point rate hikes before the end of the year. Critics of the Fed's aggressive rate hikes over the last year have said they risk putting Americans out of work by squeezing businesses. The Fed needs to slow down on these extreme rate hikes and remember its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Noah Sheidlower, Jobs, Massachusetts Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Powell, it's, Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Kathy Gramling, Marta Norton, Norton Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Fed, Capital Economics, Food, RSM, EY, Morningstar Wealth's America, Silicon Valley Bank, First, FDIC Locations: Massachusetts, EY Americas, Silicon, First Republic

☆ The case for a 2023 US recession is crumbling
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Many CEOs, investors and economists had penciled in 2023 as the year when a recession would hit the American economy. But the case for a 2023 US recession is crumbling for a simple reason: America’s jobs market is way too strong. Zandi is growing more confident that 2023 won’t be the year when a downturn will begin. “We’re running out of time for a 2023 recession,” Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan, told CNN. Friday’s jobs report did offer some conflicting signals, especially in the household survey, which economists put less weight on because it tends to be noisier.

Persons: Mark Zandi, won’t, ” Zandi, “, Justin Wolfers, “ We’ve, payrolls, Wolfers, They’ve, ” Wolfers, ” Macy’s, Zandi, Joe Brusuelas, Morgan Stanley Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Moody’s, CNN, University of Michigan, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bank of America, Challenger, RSM Locations: New York, ”

☆ Why bank stocks are so unstable
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

New York CNN —The financial sector has been churning in rough water since the shocking collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March. Bank insiders see this and have been buying up shares of regional lenders, according to a report by Timothy Coffey, an analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott. The Oracle of Omaha said he remains cautious about holding bank stocks and that he has reduced his own exposure to the sector. The S&P 500 financial sector, however, is down more than 12% over the same period. Economists were hoping that this year would bring better news, but instead 2023 brought the collapse of three US regional banks and a subsequent lending squeeze.

The Fed's meeting will be followed with expected rate increases by the European Central Bank on Thursday and the Bank of England next week. But the U.S. central bank is furthest along in the process, and may signal that this week's rate increase is the last, at least for now. Inflation has been edging down, gradually, with the main price index the Fed watches still more than double the central bank's 2% target. The anticipated quarter-percentage-point increase on Wednesday will put the target federal funds rate at roughly the same spot, between 5% and 5.25%. With this rate increase, Fed officials will hit a level that will be about 1 percentage point above the rate they consider to have a neutral impact on economic activity.

☆ First Republic may not survive, even after two multibillion-dollar bailouts
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN —First Republic Bank is in a fight for its survival. “It’s becoming clearer each day” that First Republic is “toast,” said Don Bilson at Gordon Haskett, in a note Wednesday. First Republic said in its latest earnings call that is exploring its strategic options, Wall Street code for searching for a white knight. First Republic CEO Michael Roffler attempted to assure investors in an earnings call Monday that the bank had enough liquidity to do that. That’s what happened to Silicon Valley Bank on March 10 when the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation took possession of and closed Silicon Valley Bank and on March 12 Signature Bank was closed by the New York State Department of Financial Services.

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